# 2026 BOY Stan model job review

## Job diagnostics

| job | exit | postprocess | verify | div | td_hits | min_EBFMI | theta max Rhat / min ESS | testlet max Rhat / min ESS | flags |
|---|---:|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---|---|
| foundation_inclusive | 0 | completed | 155/155 | 0 | 0 | 0.705 | 1.004 / 5066 | 1.006 / 1173 |  |
| year1_inclusive | 0 | completed | 155/155 | 0 | 0 | 0.614 | 1.004 / 941 | 1.023 / 109 | BNL0-100:rhat=1.023,ess=109.1,mean=0.258 |
| foundation_hard | 0 | completed | 1955/1955 | 0 | 0 | 0.677 | 1.003 / 4051 | 1.003 / 1081 |  |
| year1_hard | 0 | completed | 1955/1955 | 0 | 0 | 0.646 | 1.006 / 1504 | 1.068 / 78 | BNL0-100:rhat=1.068,ess=78.4,mean=0.195 |
| foundation_no_DMT10_2026 | 0 | completed | 2104/2104 | 0 | 0 | 0.694 | 1.003 / 3337 | 1.009 / 482 |  |
| foundation_no_MQ1_20_no_DMT10_2026 | 0 | completed | 2104/2104 | 0 | 0 | 0.727 | 1.002 / 6115 | 1.007 / 585 |  |
| foundation_no_BNL0_20 | 1 | recovered_after_postprocess_failure | 2098/2098 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 1.002 / 4894 | 1.004 / 1221 |  |
| year1_no_MC0_100 | 0 | completed | 2104/2104 | 0 | 0 | 0.647 | 1.002 / 4875 | 1.004 / 670 |  |
| year1_no_BNL0_100 | 1 | recovered_after_postprocess_failure | 2098/2098 | 0 | 0 | 0.598 | 1.003 / 3313 | 1.003 / 1668 |  |
| year1_core_no_MC_no_NL | 1 | recovered_after_postprocess_failure | 2098/2098 | 0 | 0 | 0.568 | 1.002 / 4612 | 1.003 / 1925 |  |

## Score/risk-band movement vs hard-filtered baseline

| comparison | n | Spearman | med abs pctile shift | p95 shift | 3-band agree | very-low Jaccard | low+very-low Jaccard | VL out/in | low+VL out/in |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| inclusive_vs_hard_foundation | 997 | 1.000 | 0.30pp | 1.40pp | 99.0% | 0.974 | 0.983 | 2/2 | 3/3 |
| inclusive_vs_hard_year1 | 1221 | 0.999 | 0.74pp | 2.62pp | 98.5% | 0.968 | 0.972 | 3/3 | 6/6 |
| foundation_no_DMT10_2026 | 997 | 0.935 | 5.72pp | 21.00pp | 85.2% | 0.703 | 0.758 | 26/26 | 48/48 |
| foundation_no_MQ1_20_no_DMT10_2026 | 995 | 0.825 | 9.95pp | 35.68pp | 76.1% | 0.520 | 0.642 | 47/47 | 76/76 |
| foundation_no_BNL0_20 | 997 | 0.865 | 8.02pp | 32.32pp | 77.5% | 0.505 | 0.661 | 49/49 | 71/71 |
| year1_no_MC0_100 | 1211 | 0.993 | 1.82pp | 6.77pp | 96.2% | 0.905 | 0.936 | 9/9 | 14/14 |
| year1_no_BNL0_100 | 1221 | 0.768 | 11.88pp | 39.31pp | 70.3% | 0.402 | 0.547 | 78/78 | 125/125 |
| year1_core_no_MC_no_NL | 1211 | 0.739 | 13.46pp | 40.42pp | 68.5% | 0.382 | 0.519 | 81/81 | 134/134 |

## Output files

- `/tmp/2026_boy_stan_review_outputs/stan_job_diagnostic_summary.csv`
- `/tmp/2026_boy_stan_review_outputs/stan_score_movement_comparisons.csv`
- `/tmp/2026_boy_stan_review_outputs/stan_testlet_sigma_summary_long.csv`
- `/tmp/2026_boy_stan_review_outputs/stan_item_difficulty_extreme_or_diagnostic_flags.csv`